This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.ĭata Availability: All underlying data are freely available, and continuously updated, on the website of the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. Received: JAccepted: Published: July 9, 2021Ĭopyright: © 2021 Hale et al. PLoS ONE 16(7):Įditor: Holly Seale, University of New South Wales, AUSTRALIA (2021) Government responses and COVID-19 deaths: Global evidence across multiple pandemic waves. These findings highlight the enduring importance of non-pharmaceutical responses to COVID-19 over time.Ĭitation: Hale T, Angrist N, Hale AJ, Kira B, Majumdar S, Petherick A, et al. Moreover, interaction effects show that government policies were effective in reducing deaths in all waves in all groups of countries. This effect was sustained in the third wave with reductions in deaths of 28 percentage points (P <. In the first wave, in countries that ultimately experiences 3 waves of the pandemic to date, ten additional points on the SI resulted in lower average daily deaths by 21 percentage points (P <. Across the full period of our analysis and 113 countries, an increase of 10 points on the SI was linked to 6 percentage points (P < 0.001, 95% CI = ) lower average daily deaths. Within each wave, regression was used to assess the relationship between the strength of government stringency and subsequent deaths related to COVID-19 with a number of controls for time and country-specific demographic, health system, and economic characteristics. Within our period of analysis, 63 countries experienced at least one wave, 40 countries experienced two waves, and 10 countries saw three waves, as defined by our approach. Countries were divided into successive waves via a mathematical algorithm to identify peaks and troughs of disease. These data were combined into an aggregate stringency index (SI) score for each country on each day (range: 0–100). Daily data was collected on a range of containment and closure policies for 186 countries from Januuntil March 11 th, 2021. We provide an assessment of the impact of government closure and containment measures on deaths from COVID-19 across sequential waves of the COVID-19 pandemic globally.
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